Mapping Systems. Revealing Power.

I am Nathan Timbs, a Senior Research Scientist at the National Security Data and Policy Institute at the University of Virginia. I joined NSDPI as a Postdoctoral Research Associate in 2025 and moved into my current role in 2026.

My research examines how complex political, economic, and security systems shape the distribution and exercise of power. At NSDPI, I conduct policy-relevant research for government and national security stakeholders, with a focus on U.S. national security, supply chain vulnerabilities, counternarcotics, critical minerals, U.S.-China competition, and open-source intelligence. Recent projects have examined fentanyl supply chains and cartel disruption, helium supply chain risks in the Persian Gulf, maritime security in the Red Sea, and state-backed strategic networks.

My academic research is rooted in international relations, civil war, human rights, rebel governance, and climate and conflict. Across this work, I am particularly interested in how political actors organize and exercise authority, how civilians experience violence and protection, and how shocks to political and environmental systems shape conflict and humanitarian outcomes.

My dissertation develops a multidimensional latent measure of rebel governance across five substantively distinct styles: civilian, international, elite, economic, and local. Using this framework, I examine how rebel military capacity shapes patterns of governance and how different forms of governance influence international involvement during civil war.

I received my Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Iowa in 2025, specializing in International Relations and Political Methodology. I also hold an M.A. in Political Science from the University of Iowa and a B.A. in Political Science and Arab Studies from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

I welcome opportunities to connect with researchers, practitioners, and policymakers working on related questions in international security, conflict, and data-driven policy research.